Get ready to mark your calendars, because 2026 is shaping up to be a monumental year at the box office! Four blockbuster films are poised to shatter the $1 billion barrier, but which ones will truly dominate? Last year, four movies achieved this feat, with Ne Zha 2 relying heavily on international audiences, while Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash conquered both domestic and global markets. This year, the pattern seems to repeat, though we can’t rule out a surprise contender—after all, Oppenheimer nearly hit the mark, and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could follow suit. But for now, let’s focus on the four films with the strongest odds of reaching that coveted ten-digit milestone.
And this is the part most people miss: not all billion-dollar contenders are created equal. Let’s dive into the rankings, starting with the least likely—but still promising—and work our way up to the surefire hit.
4) *The Mandalorian & Grogu*
Eight years after the underwhelming performance of Solo: A Star Wars Story, Disney is doubling down on a theatrical Star Wars adventure with The Mandalorian & Grogu. While the series has a loyal fanbase, its popularity peaked during its first two seasons (2019–2020). After a three-year hiatus, the final season didn’t quite recapture the magic. Will the film face a similar decline? The trailer certainly sparks excitement, but it lacks the epic, event-level buzz of earlier installments. But here’s where it gets controversial: Can a franchise with waning momentum still deliver a billion-dollar hit? We’re cautiously optimistic, but it’s far from a sure bet.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 60%
3) *Toy Story 5*
The Toy Story franchise has been a box office juggernaut, but its trajectory isn’t as straightforward as it seems. Adjusted for inflation, the first film’s 1995 gross reaches $767 million, while Toy Story 2 hits $961 million. Toy Story 3 peaked at $1.576 billion, but Toy Story 4 dipped to $1.352 billion. The question lingers: Did the series truly need a fourth installment, let alone a fifth? While Toy Story 5 is unlikely to fall below $1 billion, it won’t match the success of Zootopia 2. What do you think? Is this franchise running out of steam, or will nostalgia keep it afloat?
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 75%
2) *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*
The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) isn’t the financial powerhouse it once was, but Tom Holland’s Spider-Man remains a fan favorite. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is a smaller-scale reset after the monumental No Way Home, but it’s still expected to perform well. Think closer to Far From Home’s $1.133 billion than No Way Home’s $1.921 billion. Here’s the kicker: Even in a post-No Way Home world, can Spider-Man’s charm guarantee another billion-dollar success? We’re betting on it.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 85%
1) *Avengers: Doomsday*
Despite the MCU’s recent financial uncertainties, Avengers: Doomsday is the undisputed frontrunner. With Robert Downey Jr. returning in a new role, this film is a must-see event. But here’s the twist: its reported $600 million budget means even a $1 billion gross might not be a clear win. The real question: Will Doomsday redefine the MCU’s future, or will it fall short of expectations? All eyes are on this one, not just as the winter’s biggest film but as a potential turning point for the franchise.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 100%
Now it’s your turn: Which of these films do you think will dominate the box office? Are there any we’ve overlooked? Let’s debate in the comments—we want to hear your predictions!
